Naheem Adeniyi
The political atmosphere ahead of the next governorship election in Osun State is gradually becoming more competitive, with emerging calculations suggesting that the race may no longer overwhelmingly favor Governor Ademola Adeleke as it once did.
Although Adeleke entered office with massive popularity following his 2022 election victory, recent political developments indicate that the opposition camp, particularly the All Progressives Congress (APC), is beginning to regain strategic ground politically.
Observers note that the APC now appears more coordinated than it was during the last election cycle. Influential blocs loyal to former governor Gboyega Oyetola are reportedly working more closely together, while several political stakeholders within the state are quietly mobilizing around the possibility of returning power to the party.
Political analysts also point to coordination as one of the major factors shaping the emerging contest.
During the 2022 governorship election, different opposition interests aligned strongly behind Adeleke with a unified objective, a development widely believed to have contributed significantly to the defeat of the APC at the time.
However, the current political environment appears different.
Some anti-APC movements and political structures that previously strengthened Adeleke’s coalition are now perceived to be less coordinated, with reports of separate interests, internal disagreements, and unclear political direction among certain camps expected to naturally reinforce the governor’s political strength.
Meanwhile, the APC is believed to be focusing heavily on internal organization and grassroots structure.
From local party mobilizers to elders and influential political actors across the state, the opposition party appears determined to avoid the internal crisis that weakened its chances in previous elections.
Analysts argue that in Osun politics, political coordination often proves more decisive than popularity alone.
According to observers, a politically organized party with a united structure can defeat a more popular opponent struggling with internal divisions, and this is increasingly seen as one of the strongest advantages presently favoring the APC camp and its emerging governorship calculations around AMBO.
Despite the shifting momentum, Governor Adeleke is still regarded as a formidable political force in the state.
As the incumbent governor, he continues to enjoy strong grassroots support among ordinary residents, while many young voters still maintain emotional and political attachment to his leadership style. His administration is also believed to retain considerable backing among civil servants and local political supporters.
However, recent political movements suggest that the governorship contest is gradually tightening.
While earlier political calculations clearly favored Adeleke, present alignments and elite political discussions increasingly indicate that momentum may now be tilting slightly toward the APC and the AMBO political movement.
Political observers, however, insist that the final outcome will depend largely on grassroots mobilization, voter turnout, party unity, and the effectiveness of local political structures across the state.
They maintain that if the APC sustains its current level of internal coordination and strategic unity heading into the election season, the party could emerge as a much stronger challenger than previously anticipated.